Issue link: http://palletcentral.uberflip.com/i/1177710
numbers in 2016? That could, in effect, break the political models in many states where Hillary Clinton hit many (but not all) of her urban and suburban targets but got buried among those well away from cities. It is also unclear whether impeachment is a smart strategy for Democrats or not. The pros and cons have been debated ad nauseam. Everybody has a theory; nobody really knows. Another thing that is clear is that Warren had been climbing in the polls for months and looked very likely to consolidate the populist, most liberal lane in this race – even before Bernie Sanders had cardiac issues, with two stents put in. As a candidate, Warren has been operating on a far higher plane than any other Democrat, with a superior organization to any other. While Sanders appears set to stay in the race – his campaign said Thursday he will participate in the Oct. 15 debate in Ohio – it is unclear whether his health setback disadvantages his already increasingly challenged candidacy. To the extent that Sanders is hurt by it, Warren's already strong momentum would receive a turbo boost. As for the unknowns among the leaders: Can Warren gain strength among minorities, particularly African-Americans, who are so important in South Carolina and the March 3 Super Tuesday states? Will Trump's attacks on Biden's son and his business dealings hurt the former vice president, or could it be offset by the clear sign that Trump is terrified of Biden as an opponent, thereby reinforcing the electability argument that is so central to his candidacy? It has been clear that Biden has been plugging up the center-left/establishment-friendly lane, preventing similarly minded Democrats like Sen. Michael Bennet, Gov. Steve Bullock, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, Rep. Tim Ryan, and former Rep. John Delaney from getting much, if any, traction. If Biden is hurt, can one of them capitalize on the opportunity? If so, which one? Regarding the candidates who represent the more conventional liberal, fresh face/new look lane in the race: Can Sens. Cory Booker and Kamala Harris and former Rep. Beto O'Rourke finally get things going? Given the critical nature of Iowa, is the Nov. 1 "Liberty & Justice Celebration," which until 2015 was known as the Iowa J-J (Jefferson-Jackson) Dinner, be the last chance for them to jump-start their candidacies as it did for another young Democratic candidate, Barack Obama, in 2007? PC Charlie Cook is editor and publisher of The Cook Political Report, an independent, non- partisan newsletter he founded in 1984, and since 1998, a political analyst for National Journal, where he writes two weekly columns. Charlie served as a Resident Fellow in 2013 at the Institute of Politics at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. This article is published with permission by National Journal. palletcentral.com PalletCentral • September-October 2019 11 Charlie Cook is a political analyst for National Journal.