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38 PalletCentral • January-February 2023 palletcentral.com All the uncertainty started in April 2020 and made its rise beginning in July when the U.S. freight transportation marketplace raised to heights significantly above historic normals. is freight expansion drove transportation rates extremely high as trucks were hard to find. at uncertain market was challenging for shipper transportation budgets and a huge opportunity for truck fleets and 3PLs as they were rewarded with price increases never seen before. e "pandemic" transportation market expanded longer than any other time since the current deregulated market started in 1980. e expansion was so long that transportation providers began to accept it as the "new normal." But that all changed in January 2022, when the spot freight market adjusted back to normal by September. Looking at 2023, what is the year forecasted to look like? e good news is forecasting is easy – for most years anyway: We say this for two reasons. First, if the purpose of forecasts is to figure out if next year will force you to do something different, you don't have to get a particularly accurate forecast. What if the GDP is 2.5% instead of 3.2%? It doesn't matter that much to business results. e second reason is that most years are similar to the previous year. You don't have to do anything but keep doing the same things. e bad news is what happens in those "other" years: e payoff to forecasting is in identifying those futures that will force you to do something different. And those forecasts are hard to make. ink of it this way. Since 2000, the annual GDP has changed by more than two percentage points only four times. Economists like that because just straight-lining from the previous year makes them correct more than 80% of the time. It also makes them irrelevant 80% of the time because all an executive has to do is straight-line his company's results from the previous year, plus or minus any market share gains. Put differently; economists shy away from forecasting significant change because getting the magnitude Navigating Uncertain Times By Noël Perry & Brent Hutto 2023 Expectations: O ne of the best business principles to keep in mind is "uncertainty creates opportunity." This principle holds true whether your market opportunity is increasing or decreasing. Your success will be determined on how well you navigate the opportunities or challenges…and there will be a lot of them in 2023. The present uncertainty is driven by inflation in our economy and is evidenced by declines in the transportation market. Logistics Map: iStock/BardoczPeter; Compass: Christian Horz

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