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July-August 2015

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palletcentral.com PalletCentral • July-August 2015 33 for wood pellets to reach at least 10 MMT by then, with almost all of it produced domestically. South Korea—the world's ninth largest energy consumer—intends to supply at least 10% of its energy needs from renewable sources by the mid-2020s, up from about 2% today. Its government expects pellet demand to reach five MMT by 2020, a 50-fold increase from 2010, and for imports to meet 75-80% of that demand. Some producers in western Canada are already shifting exports from the EU to Korea due to lower shipping costs. Market analysts expect demand to grow at a much slower pace in North America than in Europe or Asia. WPAC, for example, forecasts North American consumption will rise to 5.6 MMT in 2020, from about 4.0 MMT today. Breakneck E xpansion Global wood pellet production, like consumption, is currently dominated by Europe, the U.S. and Canada, which accounted for 62%, 26% and 8% of 2013 production, respectively, according to the FAO. While concrete data on 2014 U.S. production are not yet available, our estimate—based on industry reports—puts it at 6.5- 7.0 MMT, of which about 60% was exported. WPAC estimated 2014 Canadian production at 1.9 MMT, with more than 80% exported. RISI indicates that about 90% of combined U.S. and Canadian exports in 2014 went to the EU. North American wood pellet manufacturing continues to expand at breakneck speed. Biomass Magazine keeps a tally of pellet plants in operation, under construction, and proposed for future construction. As of June 22, 2015, it showed 146 operational plants in the U.S. with an estimated annual production capacity of 10.1 MMT. Twelve additional plants with a combined capacity of at least 2.2 MMT are now being built, and 25 more are on the drawing board, which could eventually raise U.S. capacity to 17.7 MMT. Canada now has 40 pellet plants with an estimated annual

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