Issue link: http://palletcentral.uberflip.com/i/1464021
16 PalletCentral • March-April 2022 palletcentral.com 16 PalletCentral • March-April 2022 palletcentral.com The sold-out EXHIBIT HALL was also successful and was the place to be for the annual auction – the largest annual fundraiser for the Pallet Foundation. The industry broke all records, raising close to $350,000 in one night. Our heartfelt thanks go to all donors, contributors, and our talented auctioneers, Bill MacCauley of John Rock and son Chris MacCauley, for their support. "Can we get back on track to the pre-2020 environment? All I can say is that it is easier to recover from a cessation than a recession. In a recession, you must wait for products to be sold and then call the workforce back. In cessation, all we needed was vaccines to restart our lives and businesses," he said. ere are three things to consider: interest rates, oil and gas, and trade pressures. How these pan out will determine the economic outlook. "For 12 years, we had near-zero interest rates. In my opinion, the Fed bungled the situation when vaccines rolled out. Instead of feeding the economy, they should have sucked money out of the economy. Now interest rates are up," he noted. e PPP assistance suspended rents and student loans, and childcare credits were all good in 2020 but not in 2021. "In cessation, they went way too far pumping money into the economy." Now, there is a huge struggle to find workers with 10.9 million job openings. People were making more money staying at home than going to work. e stock market has bounced back, as it historically does so, even in war. It is not surprising the U.S. economy can shake off these disruptors. "Americans saved up their money, and FICO scores are higher than in 20 years," said Buchholz. "e question is, will they hang on when they must pay $6 a gallon at the gas pumps. My guess is the American consumer will be able to hold on." He provided two indicators everyone should watch: Capital One Financial – the #1 credit card, and Ally Financial – the #1 car lender. Buchholz said, "If you see these companies' stock rollover sharply, we will have a recession." e biggest concerns, from his perspective, are fluctuating weather situations and the war between Russia and Ukraine. Russia is a significant exporter of wood. Lumber shortages in general, with post- pandemic housing booms, added $19,000 to the price of a new home. e other gray area is energy. Buchholz boldly predicted, "Because the world economy has come back, and considering the Russia situation, oil prices will be substantially lower one year from now. ere are oil and gas rigs currently offline. Spickets turned off before the crisis could be put online again. Smaller oil producers will come through. ere are many bad decisions currently being made, but having said that, when we meet next year, we will be in the $50-70 range instead of $100 a barrel." He also predicts that price hikes are here to stay. "Can we get back on track to the pre-2020 environment? All I can say is that it is easier to recover from a cessation than a recession." — Todd Buchholz, former White House Senior Economic Advisor